Jason Charles is another great example of the urban doomsday preppers. Living in the largest city in the USA has some serious implications and he has an interesting approach to them.

1. Yellowstone national park

We already know how preppers should feel about volcanoes. But is the Yellowstone Caldera a threat? I recently read an interesting article by a geologist about the likelihood of a disaster level event from Yellowstone.

Yellowstone is actually a series of three different calderas, with fault line and water driven types of eruptions. Another important thing to note is that there have been a number of smaller eruptions between the last supereruption 640,000 years ago. The author also doubts that even a supereruption would create enough ash to reach NYC. The last supereruption went as far as Nebraska (1000 miles) which would not disrupt the east coast directly but could definitely disrupt domestic food production.

2. NYC and urban prepping

New York city is one of the most populated cities in the world and would be a horrible place to be in the event of a global food crisis. Jason is wise to focus on defense first. New York is one of the toughest states to get a gun license in and does not issue concealed carry permits, but if I were living there I would certainly push the paperwork before I started paying Israeli guys for Krav Maga lessons.

There may be a point when it comes to staying hidden and fighting indoors. A gunshot would destroy any secrecy if trying to hide resources. Also, there is no telling where a stray bullet could go in an apartment building, especially important with family around.

3. Martial arts

Didn’t really go into it too much but Jason was seen strapping on a katana at the beginning and brandishing a knife with a bladed pommel that looked like it came out of star trek. For self defense and reliability it’s best to stick with a full tang blade or else your knife could end up splitting in two at first contact.

Krav maga is definitely a solid choice for functional self defense. It’s very well regarded in the private defense world, ex-Israeli soldiers with Krav experience are said to be some of the best in the world. There is something to be said for the teaching method though. Doing drills is good for getting form but without live sparring there is no telling how applicable any of these techniques will be.

Krav maga often has live sparring sessions which weren’t pictured in the show but anyone looking to join a krav maga school (or any martial art for that matter) absolutely has to look for a place that does sparring. Without it, you might as well be taking choreographed dance lessons.

4. The bug in plan

The problem with Jason’s bug in plan is that it is neither a good stocking plan nor a good bugout plan. With 100 gallons of water and 4 people in the family he can survive for about 25 days. His defense is great within the home but leaves much to be desired against an organized group. What would happen if a gang decided to go door to door? What somebody lit a fire to smoke him out? There are too many variables in the city like this for me to be comfortable.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional (even though I play one on tv) . Please consult someone smarter than me before making financial decisions.

With examples of prepper entrepreneurship around like Tim Ralston, it’s enough to make a regular guy like you or I think about how it would be possible to make some cash while the system is still around. To restate a point: while any form of dependence on the financial system goes against the fundamental ideals of prepping, making careful risks can help your ability to prepare resources before a conflict.

An interesting article just came over the wire about the ‘Doomsday Preppers Portfolio’. The author of the article is not even a prepper, which serves to show that even people in the financial industry are aware of the potential downfall of society. The interesting thing about investing in stocks is that they can move in the opposite direction of the market.

On the day the stock market crashed in September of 2008, I remember doing a search on google finance to see the damage. The biggest outlier? Campbell’s soup with a positive close on the day of the crash. There is actually a measure for how a stock correlates to the market called beta, Campbell’s in this example must have had a negative value.

Likewise, the author of the above article recommends a number of stocks of companies that are probably well known to you, including Ruger, Cabela’s, and Generac. If you can understand why you would want to shop at Cabela’s in 2012, you can understand why a number of people might want to. It shouldn’t be surprising that the stock is up 90% this year alone.

Not everyone has a great idea like the crovel, but many of us have resources tied up in electronics sources like banks, 401ks and mutual funds already. If we are betting on the collapse of society with our time by prepping, why not make some money at the same time? With $5000 in the bank for this year, you would have earned $150 with a generous 3% interest rate. That same money invested in Cabela’s would have earned you $4500. That’s a lot of MREs.

This is obviously an extreme example, diversification is very important in creating a financial strategy. Hindsight is 20/20 and there is risk involved with any investment that can be expected to make a big return. But making educated investment decisions based on directions the population is headed can indeed boost your resources in a big way.

There are many things that can be said of Tim Ralston. Maker of the crovel. The prepper version of Alec Baldwin. And eventually, the first man to come under the line of fire during the filming of doomsday preppers.

1. EMP

In previous blog posts, I have said that I had my doubts about the seriousness of an EMP attack from a solar flare. After doing some more research on EMPs caused by tactical nukes I have been forced to revisit the threat of this type of situation. More on this in an upcoming blog post.

3. The crovel

I’m not going to lie, I want one of these things. It’s possible that Tim and his friends took a page of of the Deadliest Warrior playbook in bringing out that dead pig but man was I impressed. The most appealing thing about the crovel is the fact that it combines so many useful tools into one. I was looking to buy a standard issue e-tool but with the added functionality of the crovel it’s a no brainer

This was a great example of prepper entrepreneurship. Even as we prepare for the worst, it’s great to see people like Tim who are able to take advantage of the existing structure in the economy to help others out and make a little cash on the side. Some might be turned off by his lack of focus but at the end of the day, if he has more resources he’ll be able to prepare better, maybe get a jacuzzi in his underground bunker.

6. Bug out bunker

This was really interesting for a number of reasons. First, we are revisiting the idea of shipping containers for the second time in three episodes. I did not know they were as affordable as $2500. And in addition, they act as a fully functional Faraday cage, insulating from a potential EMP strike! Our friend David Sarti would love to hear about that.

A main concern which wasn’t addressed on the show was the complicated nature of getting circulating air within an underground bunker, especially without electricity. Being literally 6 feet deep is as grim as it sounds, without air one is basically in a tomb. HVAC systems are greatly aided by fans to get air out and in. It would get very uncomfortable at best, and dangerously high in CO2 at worst to rely on passive air supply. Maybe Tim could outfit a solar generator or some other renewable source to power his ventilation.

8. Bug out strategy

Overall Tim’s strategy is very much in line for what the reality is going to be for urban preppers. He is wisely avoiding stockpiling food in his home location. Although it wasn’t mentioned on the show I’m sure someone of his intelligence is planning to keep food stores in his bug out location. The only problems with this are the limited space in his underground shelter, and the difficult terrain with which to forage food locally.

One thing that was great to see in the episode was how safe his kids felt. As preppers, some of us take a lot of fire (so to speak) for involving children in our lifestyles, but the words of Tim’s sons are proof that it can be good. To kids aware of how crazy the world really can be it can be comforting to know someone has a plan.

So far, we have gone over the two different types of metabolism, fat or carb based. What is the difference between the two of these and why is it important to survival?

The fate of hungry cells

At any time, the body will be in a state of carb or fat metabolism. It takes days to switch into ketosis, and often more than a week for people who have never been in it before. Because of this, carbs are a great source of fuel when they are abundant, but leave you out in the cold once you lose access, as you would in a survival situation.

Let’s say you had two twins, one who was in a state of carb metabolism and one who was in a state of fat metabolism. Imagine your disaster of choice wipes out infrastructure and in three days, there is no access to survival foods. Both are now in a state of starvation. Let’s also say for the sake of the argument that they are in a state of physical exertion, moving over land, defending themselves and porting supplies with them.They are expending energy, which has to come from somewhere. In this case, the body.

Fat metabolism

Twin #1 is in a state of fat metabolism. His cells are primed to accept ketones as a fuel source. In a state of starvation with energy to expend, his cells will crave ketones. Thankfully, he will have an abundant source of ketones in his body fat. Fat will be converted into usable calories at 9 calories per gram. For the average person, this is a lot of energy. Taking an average weight of 175 lbs and a healthy bodyfat percentage of 15%, this twin will be able to lose 10% of his weight in fat, or 17.5 lbs before it becomes unhealthy. This leaves close to 8000 grams of usable fat, which translates into a massive 72000 calories before twin#1 starts losing more essential tissue.

Carbohydrate metabolism

Twin #2 is used to using glucose as a fuel source. Without carbohydrates to eat, his cells will have to adapt to ketosis. In the mean time, it will be a rough transition. Some symptoms well known to low carb dieters include brain fog, sleepiness, lack of energy and headaches. During my time with keto diets I also experienced a few nasty migraines as well. This will last for a few days, but could be as long as a week depending on the dietary history. Meanwhile, the world may be falling apart and precious time is being lost.

One of the more sinister consequences is the loss of muscle tissue. As you may recall, proteins are very close to carbohydrates and when needed, can be converted. Because of this, people in a state of carbohydrate metabolism lose more muscle than those in fat metabolism. The protein is scavenged and broken down into the preferred fuel source, carbohydrate. In a state of physical exertion, this is all the more likely.

The x factor

While calories may be available, there are critical nutrients to be considered for survival. Stay tuned to the next post in the series for the essential nutrients to supplement calories in a starvation state.

Quick, how long did the energy from the last meal you ate last? An hour, two hours? How long did it take until you got hungry again? The answers to these questions has a lot to do with the macronutrient content of what that meal contained. And you had better believe this has serious implications for the optimal survival foods for a disaster situation.

Three types of calories, two forms of energy

As we know, all calories were not created equal. Glancing over any nutrition label, you are likely to see calories at the top. Everything underneath can be classified into calories from one of three main sources, protein, carbohydrates, and fat. The calories from these three categories will always add up to the total calories in a meal because they are the units of energy which make up a food. All roads lead to the same end destination: usable energy for your body.

Fat based metabolism (ketones)

Earlier in human history, our ancestors used to roam the lands following herds: buffalo, gazelle or even mammoth. We were hunters, and we supplemented this diet with herbs and roots we could forage. The meat we would eat from these animals contained a lot of protein, but most of the usable calories came from fat, which is a lot denser in energy. Fat is converted into molecules called ketones in the bloodstream which are used by cells as fuel. This energy would provide a sustained burn for constant energy; being in a state of using fat as fuel is known as ketosis. When we had a big kill, or when we found fruit to harvest, our bodies could store these extra calories as fat.

Carbohydrate based metabolism (glucose)

In primitive times, carbohydrates were scarce. Before civilization, grains were not harvested or processed in an organized way. Crops were not raised as we were nomads. Carbs were available very rarely and would have to be stored as fat for the lean times ahead if they were found. Carbohydrates break down very fast into a sugar called glucose which is carried in the blood, raising blood sugar levels. The hormone insulin acts as a key within the gates of the cells to allow glucose to enter.

The problem with the modern diet

The problem is, fat and carbohydrate metabolism are mutually exclusive. Carbs, being rare for millions of years of history, are preferentially used by the human body. As modern people, we live in a state of constant harvest. Our bodies react to carbohydrates with the aim to store, insulin is released to shuttle them into our cells.

If you look at the standard American diet, almost every meal contains carbohydrates. From the bagel at breakfast, to the sandwich at lunch, to the steak and potatoes for dinner, we constantly eat carbohydrates. This makes us less able to use fat as a fuel source. Switching into ketosis takes over a week for most people, and until then the fat on the body cannot be used for fuel.

If you turn off the faucet for carbs, you are in big trouble from an energy perspective. How do you prevent this, and how can you prepare yourself from being separated from food? More in the next post in this series.

If I asked a room full of 10 preparation-minded people what the most important item on their bug out bag list was, I would probably get 10 different answers. Fire? Rations? Salad dressing? Knives? All of these are certainly important for survival, but the truth is without one item they are all useless.

The most important item on your bug out bag list is… You! Without your good health, all of your preparations are useless. This seems like a pretty obvious fact, but the amount of evidence to the contrary is overwhelming.

Quick question: what do you think the percentage of a catastophic event happening in the next year are? 2%? 5%? 10%? The percentage of people diagnosed with heart disease in 2010 is 27.1 million or 11.8%, which amounted to 16.7 million hospital visits.

What would happen to those people if the grid collapsed? We might have a pretty quick loss of 10% of the population. But there’s more to it. Within the prepper community, some of us poke fun at less likely events (like the New Madrid fault slipping) compared to more likely events (like hurricanes in the southeast). You have to prepare for the most likely situations if you’re going to prepare at all.

In the event of even a minor collapse, illnesses that would cause a routine trip to the hospital become life threatening. Diseases like diabetes become fatal. Cancer becomes a death sentence. You need to take care of your health first.

People with families may think this is a selfish perspective, but they should be reminded that there are no life insurance policies in a post apocalyptic world. You won’t be able to provide for your family, protect them, or help them navigate through tough times if you are sick or dead. Your health is even more important if you have a family.

What does this mean for your preparation plans? You need to prepare for your health, both today and for the ability to maintain it post collapse. Benjamin Franklin once wrote that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and nowhere is that more true than with your health. Start by eating a healthy diet. Get some exercise and develop a routine you could use in the event of a collapse. Get some vitamins and learn where to get them in your local environment.

The actions you take to improve your physical health are often the same to help your resistance to disease. Low carb diets (such as paleo) have been proven to help blood markers, reduce inflammation , and even delay cancer. At the end of the day you’re more able to get out of dodge, defend yourself once you’re out and live a long life after the collapse.

So remember guys, look out for number one

Dennis Evers rounds off the second episode of Doomsday Preppers with a bang. Like Kathy Harrison he has a strong desire to build a community, but he also takes no chances when it comes to self defense. Dennis has taken specialization to the max, going so far as to train his daughter in welding to be able to act as a post-apocalyptic engineer. It’s an approach that even the most cynical couldn’t deny.

1. Hyperinflation
Without going into detail I will restate a point I made earlier that economic problems do not trickle down to the grocery store level. Hyperinflation would devastate investors and savings account but people would not start eating each other. Look at the events in Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine in the 90s; people were upset but no one was getting eaten alive. Still, in the short run it would be very valuable to have the option to drop off the grid sustainably for a few months

3. Wood stove

The concept of operating a wood stove is interesting as a fuel source because it’s eminently renewable in rural areas. However, there is the distinct drawback of making one’s location visible for miles from the smoke. When it comes to cooking, a solar oven (like the one Kellene Bishop made) would be far more covert. However when it comes to heating, the wood stove is tough to beat. There’s no point in hiding your location if you’re frozen to death, at some point the pros and cons have to be weighed.

4. IT security system – motion detection

Despite the susceptibility to EMP events some may be concerned about, the concept of an IT based security system is intriguing. With a small group like the Evers family, it would be difficult to have a fully staffed guard schedule. Using electronics allows one to have the coverage of a number of people at all times. It would be better to have more than one guy as a defense unit, but it’s a great start.

My only concern would be the power. Obviously these would have to be battery operated devices. While hunting cameras may last a while, anything providing a live feed would eat up power. Batteries would be hard to come by after a collapse. The only way this would work is if there was a rechargeable set of batteries (Lithium Ion or similar) and a source of electric power like a solar panel or windmill.

5. PVC bow

I thought this part of the episode was just silly, and I believe it may have been out of context. But in the long term, working with materials such as PVC would not be a good idea. PVC is a petroleum based product and in the event of an infrastructure collapse, there would be none in production for the world. Seeing as the Evers family lives in a rural area, focusing on woodwork for fashioning bows would be more appropriate. Not to mention, the draw on that bow looks pretty weak and would probably not last over time.
6. Lack of fuel

Unlike my previous entries in this series, I do not have a cool story for the discovery of vitamin E. When the powers that be started naming vitamins, they started at the beginning with B and A. These vitamins were discovered early on because of the devastating affects that happened to those who did not consume them. However, the effects for vitamin E are much harder to detect.

Is vitamin E is part of your essential emergency supplies?

As a matter of fact, research suggests that is almost impossible to suffer from vitamin E deficiency in the absence of relatively rare diseases of metabolism. The symptoms associated with vitamin E deficiency are related to neurological function, but again, they aren’t seen very often in people that are healthy.

There is more to this vitamin than preventing deficiency, however. Vitamin E has a potent antioxidant effect. Many dietary fat sources such as fish oil supplements have vitamin E added to them to prevent the fats from oxidizing. The enemies of dietary fat are time and heat, both of which are a concern to a prepper undertaking food storage.

Many of the heart problems associated with bad fats have to do with oxidization. Improper cooking of food will damage fat molecules and make them more likely to clog arteries according to a number of (very mean) animal studies involving small rodents. For long term survival, your health is just as important as your food store. If you plan on eating food that could oxidize over time, thinking about antioxidants is essential.

Different forms, different sources

Vitamin E actually represents a number of chemicals known as tocepherols and tocotrienols. There are four of each (alpha, beta, gamma and delta). Alpha-tocepherol is the most widely studied form of vitamin E, mostly because it has a very measurable antioxidant effect. However, the other forms have been recently found to have unique properties. Overall, the best option for maximum health is to take a combination of all eight.

The best way to supplement vitamin E, in home and in the field

Vitamin E is very common in the food supply, existing in many plant based fats. One of the best sources for many of these are nuts. Sunflower seeds and almonds are among some of the best sources, taste delicious, and are easy to store to boot.

Kathy Harrison refers to herself as the Doris Day of Doom, something that makes me think that under the nice lady exterior lurks the heart of a vicious warlord. I’m on to you Kathy, don’t you forget it.

1.  New Madrid fault – electricity, gas, rolling blackouts (1 in 50)

Of the electricity and power related disaster scenarios seen on the show thus far, an earthquake on the New Madrid fault seems the most devastating. Unlike solar related EMP events, a major earthquake along New Madrid would be a long term upset in the ability to get power from the grid.

Rolling blackout could be expected, but not the frying of electric equipment. Again, taken with a grain of salt due to Doomsday Preppers history of simplifying prepper’s motivations but I think that if you are truly concerned with preparing for grid-level electrical problems, it would be prudent to invest in generators or renewable energy sources.

2. Getting political

Kathy and Bruce self identify as New England liberals and take a political stance against guns. This doesn’t really make sense to me. Guns are a tool just like anything else. If there was a political party against water purifiers, do you think people would be opposed to getting those for preparation purposes?

There is a certain amount of courage required for people to be doomsday preppers in the modern day in the face of social norms. It is a radical lack of awareness to believe that one does not need protection in a survival scenario. Living in a rural area, there are reasons other than raiders to need a gun. What if a bear smelled food in their house? You aren’t going to get him to go away with common courtesy.

3. Growing food and barter

Ignoring the ability to defend it, the idea of stockpiling resources as a means to barter in a post-apocalyptic world is a very smart idea. Unfortunately, it gives the more obsessed of us a reason to extend their prepping beyond what they would ever need.  Kathy and Bruce have a great idea when it comes to honey.

The knowledge that honey doesn’t spoil is mostly true. Honey has supposedly even been found in edible form in pyramids.  Due to the sugar content in it, honey will kill any cellular organism (including bacteria) by drawing the moisture out of it through osmosis. This is the same principle behind salting meat. However, if honey can draw moisture from the air and once it reaches a certain point it can indeed spoil. As always, proper storage is essential.

4. Community involvement

Kathy and Bruce’s commitment to building a community is admirable and will serve them well in a post-apocalyptic situation. The ability to carry on life as normal within a community is essential to maintaining sanity and preventing cabin fever. Not to mention, if they could get over their fear of guns they could have a fearsome squad going on. Kathy could be the leader.

Some of you may have heard of the eruption currently taking place in Guatemala but I recently saw this video and it really brought the reality of the situation into perspective. What would you do if you woke up one day and saw this on your horizon? Volcanoes are located in many different parts of the world, and if you live near one of them you need to consider volcanoes in your preparation plans

 Are you near a volcano?

Volcanoes can be formed anywhere that tectonic plates meet. Magma from the earth’s mantle wells up and when the pressure becomes to much, there will be an eruption. If you live on the west coast it is very likely you could be close to a volcano (as if there weren’t enough problems with the earthquakes).

For readers outside of the US, there is a wider distribution of volcanoes. Check out this map for an overview of volcano locations worldwide

What happens during an eruption?

The first thing that comes to mind when people think of volcanoes is lava. While lava is a visible  and destructive example of what a volcano can do, there are many more lethal aspects to an eruption.

The smoke coming out of volcanoes can be much deadlier than slow moving lava. Pyroclastic flows, as they are referred to, can move up to speeds of 450 mph and can be as hot as 1000 degrees Celsius. That’s not a typo, one thousand degrees celsius, over 10 times as hot as it needs to be to boil water, which 70% of your body is made of.

If this wasn’t bad enough, these pyroclastic flows often contain superheated rock fragments which can shoot off like shrapnel. When lava hits the water, similar fragments called tephra can form and explode out of the water.

Lava hitting salt water will break down salt into chlorine to form hydrochloric gas which is incredibly deadly. In the year 2000, two bodies were found with their skin burned off and their lungs swollen near Mount Kilauea in Hawaii, a result of this deadly gas. Depending on wind currents these could possibly blow into your area if you are located near the ocean.

How can you prepare for an eruption?

There are a number of emergency supplies you could have in case of a volcano but at the end of the day bugging out is priority number one. Your best defense against a volcano is a well stocked bug out bag and a full tank of gas. The ability to get out of town before evacuation clogs the roadways is essential, minutes could make a difference between being trapped in the way of a pyroclastic flow or not.

As of right now, there is currently a 30,000 person evacuation in progress for the volcano in the video. Response time was limited but fortunately enough the biggest threat with this particular eruption is volcanic smog and ash. Don’t be caught waiting for FEMA to show up if there is an eruption in your area. Get your emergency supplies ready and be prepared to get out of dodge.